Reference Article: Editorial | The Hindu – Addressing an anomaly: On stubble burning, burnt-area estimates
UPSC Relevance:
– GS III – Environment
The Environment Ministry recently informed Parliament that Punjab and Haryana reduced “fire incidences” by 90% in 2025 compared to 2022. This refers to stubble burning, a long-standing practice linked to severe post-monsoon pollution episodes in Delhi-NCR. While governments have used a combination of penalties, subsidised machinery, and incentives to reduce burning, there is little scientific evidence that these measures have substantially lowered pollution from stubble burning.
Flawed Reliance on Satellite Fire Counts
Because detailed chemical source apportionment is unavailable, the government uses satellite-detected fire counts as a proxy. But:
- Polar-orbiting satellites pass over India only between 10 a.m. and 1:30 p.m.
- Since 2022, farmers have increasingly burned stubble in the evening to evade detection.
- Independent analysis using Meteosat (geostationary) data confirmed this shift.
- As a result, fire counts from polar satellites significantly underestimate actual burning.
Burnt-Area Measurements Tell a Different Story
When researchers used satellite data to measure “burnt area” instead of just counting fires:
- The reduction from 2022 to 2025 was only ~30%, not 90%.
- 2022: ~31,500 sq. km
- 2025: ~19,700 sq. km (as of November 25)
The Supreme Court had already directed the Environment Ministry in 2024 to rely on burnt-area analysis, yet the Centre has not released year-wise burnt-area data, raising transparency concerns.
Consequences of Data Misrepresentation
- Weakens public trust in pollution-control claims.
- Obscures the true scale of stubble burning.
- Undermines policy effectiveness by relying on incomplete metrics.
- Prevents meaningful corrective action since the problem is masked rather than understood.
Way Forward
- Immediately adopt burnt-area measurements as the primary indicator.
- Release annual datasets transparently for public and scientific scrutiny.
- Improve multi-satellite integration and independent auditing of pollution-related datasets.
- Strengthen behavioural and financial incentives for farmers to shift to non-burning practices.
Sample UPSC Mains Question
Q. Government claims of reduced stubble burning in Punjab-Haryana rest largely on polar-satellite fire counts. Critically examine the reliability of such metrics and discuss their implications for air pollution governance in India.