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Northeast Monsoon 2025: Relief, Risks, and Readiness in Southern India

Reference Article: The Hindu

UPSC Relevance:
– GS Paper I: Geographical Features and their Impact on Society
– GS Paper III: Disaster Management, Agriculture, and Urban Planning
– Essay Paper: Climate Variability, Resilience, and Governance

The timely onset of the northeast monsoon — on October 16, 2025, four days ahead of schedule — has brought welcome relief to southern India, especially Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, where it is crucial for agriculture, water supply, and disaster preparedness.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast “above normal” rainfall, expected to exceed 112% of the long-period average (LPA), signalling both opportunity and risk.

Monsoon Significance and Pattern

  • The northeast monsoon contributes 48% of Tamil Nadu’s and over 30% of Andhra Pradesh’s annual rainfall.
  • Historically (1971–2020 data), it is the primary agricultural season for the southern peninsula.
  • The season also brings 3 or more cyclonic disturbances over the Bay of Bengal on average, along with an increasing incidence of cloudbursts, as noted by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
  • These factors heighten the risk of urban flooding, particularly in Chennai, where extreme rainfall events have become a recurring threat.

Disaster Preparedness and State Initiatives

  • The Tamil Nadu government has initiated a real-time flood forecasting system for Chennai to better manage reservoir discharge and water flow during heavy rains.
  • Coordination among disaster response agencies has improved, reducing casualties in recent years.
  • However, structural vulnerabilities persist:
    • Inadequate stormwater drains and poor urban drainage systems.
    • Encroachments and dumping in waterbodies, reflecting a lack of community participation in maintaining ecological infrastructure.

Agricultural and Supply Concerns

  • Despite favourable rainfall forecasts, farmers face fertilizer shortages, particularly of urea.
  • Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin raised the issue with the Prime Minister, highlighting supply constraints also faced by other rain-dependent States.
  • The Union Ministry of Agriculture subsequently raised the urea allocation for October, from 36.65 lakh tonnes in 2024 to higher levels in 2025.

Way Forward

  • The 2025 monsoon underscores the dual nature of rainfall — as both a resource and a risk.
  • Effective management will require:
    • Integrated urban flood control, linking drainage, reservoirs, and real-time monitoring.
    • Community participation in maintaining waterbodies.
    • Streamlined agricultural inputs to capitalise on favourable rainfall.
    • Inter-agency coordination across local, State, and national levels.

Conclusion

The above-normal northeast monsoon presents an opportunity for agricultural revival and water security but also a test of urban resilience and governance. The challenge lies in ensuring that rainfall abundance does not turn into a disaster — through foresight, cooperation, and preparedness.

UPSC Mains Practice Question (GS Paper III):

“The northeast monsoon is both a lifeline and a liability for southern India. Discuss how integrated planning can reconcile agricultural dependence and disaster management needs in the region.”